Finding the Bottom - A "How To" Guide

Commercial Real Estate values in Pinellas County have dropped between 5% and 20% depending on the segment. Land has fallen the most (in larger parcels further inland as much as 60%) and Industrial Space has faired the best. Everyone is speculating when we will hit the bottom and how long it will last and the consensus is that the bottom will occur between July and 18 months from now.

Many people with lots of money are standing on the sidelines waiting until just the right moment to swoop in and make the buy of a lifetime. We get calls everyday from investment groups wanting 10% Cap Rate properties.

You should act now to beat them to the punch.

In my experience good deals are made with hard work - not found by standing around until just the right time.

Now is the time to make the low ball offers on property - as long as you do it smartly and politely. There is a reason why now is the best time to do it.

First we have to get comfortable with a few assumptions:
  • The bottom is 2 - 18 months off.
  • Most people with money are still waiting on the market bottom to arrive (assuming they will recognize it when it arrives).
  • When the masses perceive the market bottom has arrived, those with money will snap up the good deals in  a rush.
  • Owners still think commercial Real Estate is on a downward trend, but thy expect it to level out and begin climbing in the months ahead.

As Commercial Real Estate prices trend downward we can accelerate the race the the bottom by making a well delivered low ball offer. Some owners are willing to discount their properties by 30% now, but you only know if you ask.

Most buyers I work with are uncomfortable making offers much more than 10% below the asking price. These are smart people and I respect their reasons - but I often disagree with their conclusion. When we make offers of 20% and 30% below the asking price the broker must act with skill, tact, and grace so that the dialogs between parties continues in a cordial fashion even when the disagreements are great.

Identify your target properties.
  • Determine if the property is a good buy at a 20% discount.
  • Engage with a tactful broker who has good people skills.
  • Begin making offers.
  • Expect to work hard to negotiate deals.

Your other option is to wait until everyone thinks we are at the market bottom and competitively bid against them all.


 

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